Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 0.824820 0.960261 1.110514 1.289509 1.496908 1.729644 2.010652
2025-01-26 0.609840 0.792116 1.016780 1.313830 1.696178 2.171764 2.808510
2025-02-02 0.518439 0.727484 1.004977 1.399799 1.946885 2.678190 3.730599
2025-02-09 0.444263 0.663983 0.973822 1.441794 2.130282 3.105938 4.594531
2025-02-16 0.383585 0.605555 0.935405 1.460048 2.272950 3.484449 5.428464
2025-02-23 0.332387 0.551124 0.891785 1.459290 2.380256 3.815907 6.225500
2025-03-02 0.288902 0.501062 0.845985 1.445443 2.460278 4.108484 6.990543
2025-03-09 0.256015 0.462924 0.812959 1.445606 2.559303 4.437839 7.849170
2025-03-16 0.220262 0.414282 0.755071 1.394206 2.561529 4.601940 8.441354
2025-03-23 0.211381 0.412302 0.777652 1.486601 2.826089 5.245425 9.949117
2025-03-30 0.185536 0.374921 0.731083 1.445462 2.840350 5.441055 10.660035
2025-04-06 0.162590 0.339881 0.684218 1.397106 2.833560 5.594245 11.304286
2025-04-13 0.142745 0.308808 0.642021 1.354319 2.835885 5.771728 12.031936
2025-04-20 0.132169 0.295559 0.633881 1.379777 2.979424 6.243991 13.412265
2025-04-27 0.128626 0.296807 0.655574 1.469998 3.267869 7.040479 15.556829
2025-05-04 0.121287 0.288581 0.655970 1.514069 3.462489 7.663216 17.404852
2025-05-11 0.112718 0.276309 0.645856 1.533225 3.604001 8.187351 19.097562
2025-05-18 0.103644 0.261538 0.628140 1.532431 3.699474 8.619633 20.631836
2025-05-25 0.094637 0.245668 0.605845 1.517898 3.760829 8.981150 22.044064
2025-06-01 0.087472 0.233385 0.590502 1.518070 3.856989 9.432835 23.721629
2025-06-08 0.078010 0.213895 0.555144 1.464128 3.813817 9.550054 24.600783
2025-06-15 0.077367 0.217552 0.578088 1.561091 4.161076 10.649126 28.047078
2025-06-22 0.069831 0.201527 0.548622 1.517918 4.142747 10.841892 29.211491